Is Evolution a Search Algorithm? How Life Explores Nearly Infinite Possibilities

进化是一种搜索算法吗?生命如何探索近乎无限的可能性

把进化写成一个搜索问题:搜索空间有多大、适应度景观为什么崎岖、漂变与选择如何分工、中性网络怎样让生命穿越低谷,最后把自然选择、贝叶斯推断、梯度下降与强化学习放进同一个更新规则里比较。
Origins of Life
Author

Jie Hua

Published

Nov 2, 2026

写作说明 / Note

本文由 AI(DeepSeek-Flash) 检索、整理并撰写,尚未经过人工逐条校对。文中所有数字、曲线与图像都由随文 R 代码现场计算生成,随机过程统一设定了种子,因此结果可复现;模拟里用到的参数是教学用的简化值,不应当作真实物种的定量结论。生命起源与进化生物学中仍有大量争议,凡涉及争议处,文中会直接说明”这是模型假设”而不是”这是事实”。

This article was researched and written by an AI system (DeepSeek-Flash) and has not been proofread line by line by a human. Every number, curve and figure is computed by the R code in this post with fixed seeds, so the results reproduce; the parameter values in the simulations are teaching simplifications, not quantitative claims about real species. Several questions in origin-of-life research and evolutionary biology remain contested, and wherever that is the case the text says “this is a model assumption” rather than “this is a fact”.

写一篇长文中英对照文章,题目《进化是一种搜索算法吗?生命如何探索近乎无限的可能性》,关键词 Fitness Landscape · Evolutionary Search · Optimization。围绕五个问题展开:搜索空间的规模、适应度景观与局部最优、选择–漂变–突变偏向的相对作用、可进化性、开放式进化。要求:数学定义写清楚(Price 方程、replicator 方程、Wright–Fisher 固定概率、Eigen 错误阈值、NK 模型),所有图用 R 现场生成(3D 景观、NK 模型、进化轨迹、系统发育树、基因型网络、中性网络、种群动态),能放进一个统一框架就把自然选择、贝叶斯推断、梯度下降、强化学习和开放式进化放在同一组更新方程下比较;最后一节讨论数字进化与可进化 AI 的最新争论。禁止编造文献 DOI。

Write a long bilingual post, “Is Evolution a Search Algorithm? How Life Explores Nearly Infinite Possibilities”, keywords Fitness Landscape · Evolutionary Search · Optimization. Cover five questions: the size of genotype space, fitness landscapes and local optima, the relative roles of selection, drift and mutation bias, evolvability, and open-endedness. Make the mathematics explicit (Price equation, replicator equation, Wright–Fisher fixation probability, Eigen’s error threshold, the NK model) and generate every figure live in R (3D landscapes, NK models, evolutionary trajectories, phylogenies, genotype networks, neutral networks, population dynamics). If a unified framework is possible, compare natural selection, Bayesian inference, gradient descent, reinforcement learning and open-ended evolution under one family of update rules. End with the current debate on digital evolution and evolvable AI. Do not invent DOIs.

1. 把进化写成一道搜索题 / Writing evolution as a search problem

先做一个思想实验。假设你是一个从未见过地球生命的外星工程师,有人递给你一份 4.6 Mb 的大肠杆菌基因组,告诉你:这串字符是在四十亿年里、由一堆没有大脑的化学反应”找”出来的,而且它能在 37 °C 的肉汤里自我复制。你大概会问两个问题:它是怎么找到这串字符的?以及,它为什么没有找到更好的?

To start, run a thought experiment. You are an alien engineer who has never seen life on Earth, and someone hands you a 4.6 Mb E. coli genome: this string was “found” over four billion years by a pile of brainless chemistry, and it can copy itself in broth at 37 °C. You would probably ask two questions: how did it find that string, and why did it not find something better?

任何搜索问题都可以写成三元组 \((\mathcal{X}, f, \mathcal{A})\):搜索空间 \(\mathcal{X}\)(候选解的集合)、目标函数 \(f: \mathcal{X} \to \mathbb{R}\)、以及搜索算法 \(\mathcal{A}\)(在每一步决定看哪里)。梯度下降里 \(\mathcal{X} = \mathbb{R}^d\),\(f\) 光滑可微,\(\mathcal{A}\) 用 \(\nabla f\) 决定方向;进化里 \(\mathcal{X}\) 是所有可能的基因组,\(f\) 是适应度,\(\mathcal{A}\) 是”变异 + 遗传 + 选择 + 漂变”这一整套机制。

Every search problem can be written as a triple \((\mathcal{X}, f, \mathcal{A})\): a search space \(\mathcal{X}\) (the set of candidate solutions), an objective \(f: \mathcal{X} \to \mathbb{R}\), and an algorithm \(\mathcal{A}\) that decides where to look next. In gradient descent, \(\mathcal{X} = \mathbb{R}^d\), \(f\) is smooth and differentiable, and \(\mathcal{A}\) uses \(\nabla f\) to pick a direction. In evolution, \(\mathcal{X}\) is the set of all possible genomes, \(f\) is fitness, and \(\mathcal{A}\) is the whole machinery of mutation, inheritance, selection and drift.

这个类比一旦写下来,立刻就能看出进化的几个”异常”之处。第一,它拿不到梯度:生物不能对适应度求导,只能真的生下来、活下来或者死掉,用生死来采样 \(f\)。第二,它同时在很多点上搜索:一个种群不是一个点,而是成千上万个点并行地试探。第三,它的目标函数不是固定的:捕食者、寄生者、气候和同类都在动,\(f\) 本身随时间变化,而且生物会改造环境、反过来改变 \(f\)——这就是生态位构建(niche construction)。

Once the analogy is written down, several oddities of evolution become visible immediately. First, it has no gradient: an organism cannot differentiate fitness, it can only be born, survive or die, sampling \(f\) with its life. Second, it searches many points at once: a population is not a point but thousands of points probing in parallel. Third, the objective is not fixed: predators, parasites, climate and conspecifics all move, so \(f\) changes in time, and organisms modify their environment and thereby change \(f\) itself — niche construction.

所以这篇长文的路线是:先把三个组成部分逐个拆开(第 2–3 章讲空间和景观,第 4–6 章讲算法里的随机性与结构性),再讨论进化的”元能力”(第 7–8 章的可进化性与开放式进化),最后把这些零件重新装进一个统一的数学框架,和梯度下降、贝叶斯推断、强化学习逐项对照(第 9 章)。结束时你应当能自己判断:进化究竟是不是一种搜索算法,如果是,它和我们已经熟悉的那些算法差在哪里。

So the route of this long post is: take the three components apart one at a time (chapters 2–3 for the space and the landscape, chapters 4–6 for the stochastic and structural parts of the algorithm), then discuss evolution’s “meta-abilities” (evolvability and open-endedness in chapters 7–8), and finally reassemble the parts into one mathematical framework and compare it term by term with gradient descent, Bayesian inference and reinforcement learning (chapter 9). By the end you should be able to decide for yourself whether evolution is a search algorithm, and if so, where exactly it differs from the ones we already know.

2. 搜索空间:为什么绝大多数序列从未被探索 / The size of the space

先算一个数。长度为 \(L\) 的 DNA 序列,可能的种类是 \(4^L\);长度 20 的短序列就有 \(4^{20} \approx 1.1 \times 10^{12}\) 种,长度 100 的蛋白质编码区是 \(4^{100} \approx 1.6 \times 10^{60}\) 种,而一条 100 个氨基酸的蛋白质是 \(20^{100} \approx 10^{130}\) 种。作为对比,可观测宇宙的原子数大约是 \(10^{80}\)。

Start with arithmetic. A DNA sequence of length \(L\) has \(4^L\) possible variants; a mere 20-mer already has \(4^{20} \approx 1.1 \times 10^{12}\) variants, a 100-bp coding region has \(4^{100} \approx 1.6 \times 10^{60}\), and a 100-amino-acid protein has \(20^{100} \approx 10^{130}\). For comparison, the observable universe contains about \(10^{80}\) atoms.

Code
len_grid <- exp(seq(log(4), log(200), length.out = 160))
space_df <- bind_rows(
  tibble(len = len_grid, alphabet = "DNA (4 letters)", n = 4^len_grid),
  tibble(len = len_grid, alphabet = "Protein (20 letters)", n = 20^len_grid)
)

p_space_a <- ggplot(space_df, aes(len, n, colour = alphabet)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 0.9) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = c(10^40, 10^80), linetype = c("22", "13"),
             colour = blog_pal[["grey"]], linewidth = 0.35) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = unname(blog_pal[c("blue", "vermillion")])) +
  scale_x_log10() +
  scale_y_log10(breaks = 10^seq(0, 300, by = 60),
                labels = function(x) paste0("1e", round(log10(x))),
                limits = c(1, 1e300)) +
  labs(x = "sequence length L", y = "possible sequences", colour = NULL) +
  theme(legend.position = "top")

explored <- tibble(len = len_grid, fraction = 10^40 / 4^len_grid)
p_space_b <- ggplot(explored, aes(len, fraction)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 0.9, colour = blog_pal[["green"]]) +
  scale_x_log10() +
  scale_y_log10(label = label_log()) +
  annotate("point", x = 66, y = 10^40 / 4^66, colour = blog_pal[["vermillion"]], size = 1.8) +
  annotate("text", x = 70, y = 10^(-6), label = "L = 66: one part in 1e-8",
           size = 2.5, hjust = 0, colour = blog_pal[["vermillion"]]) +
  labs(x = "sequence length L", y = "fraction explored")

p_space_a / p_space_b
Figure 1: 搜索空间的量级。左:DNA(4 字母)与蛋白质(20 字母)序列空间随长度指数增长;两条水平线分别是可观测宇宙的原子数(约 10^80)与生物圈有史以来尝试过的突变总量(粗略量级 10^40)。右:已被探索的比例随长度迅速跌破任何可想象的阈值。 | The scale of the search space. Left: sequence space grows exponentially with length for DNA (4 letters) and proteins (20 letters); the two horizontal lines mark the number of atoms in the observable universe (about 10^80) and a rough order-of-magnitude estimate of every mutation the biosphere has ever tried (10^40). Right: the fraction explored falls below any imaginable threshold as length grows.

图中右侧那条曲线值得盯着看几秒。即使把生物圈四十亿年里做过的每一次复制、每一个突变都算上,长度超过 66 的序列空间里被探索过的比例也已经是 \(10^{-8}\) 以下;对一条蛋白质来说,这个比例小到写不出有意义的指数。生命不是在穷举,它是在一个几乎全空的空间里做极稀疏的采样。

It is worth staring at the right-hand curve for a few seconds. Even counting every replication and every mutation the biosphere has performed in four billion years, the fraction of sequence space explored beyond length 66 is already below \(10^{-8}\); for a protein the fraction is too small to write a meaningful exponent. Life is not enumerating. It is sampling extremely sparsely in a space that is almost entirely empty.

这件事决定了后面所有讨论的基调。既然不可能穷举,“找到好解”就只能依靠两件事:搜索算法能不能把采样集中到有希望的区域,以及这个空间的结构是否允许”局部有用的改动”逐步累积。前者是算法问题,后者是景观问题。而这两者恰好是同一枚硬币的两面——所谓适应度景观,就是把 \(f\) 的值铺在空间上形成的形状。

This sets the tone for everything that follows. Since enumeration is impossible, “finding a good solution” can only rely on two things: whether the search algorithm concentrates its samples in promising regions, and whether the structure of the space allows locally useful changes to accumulate. The first is a question about algorithms, the second about landscapes. They are two sides of one coin — a fitness landscape is just the shape you get by laying the values of \(f\) over the space.

3. 适应度景观:进化是在爬山吗 / Fitness landscapes: is evolution hill climbing?

“适应度景观”这个概念由 Sewall Wright 在 1932 年提出,本意是一个比喻:把基因型放在平面上,适应度画成高度,于是进化就是景观上的一条路径。这个比喻极其成功,也极其危险,因为它暗示景观是固定不变的、二维的、可以用眼睛看懂的。真实情况是:维度等于基因数,景观随环境变化,而且生物自己也在改地形。

The idea of a fitness landscape was introduced by Sewall Wright in 1932 as a metaphor: lay genotypes on a plane, plot fitness as height, and evolution becomes a path across the landscape. The metaphor is extremely successful and extremely dangerous, because it suggests that the landscape is fixed, two-dimensional and graspable by eye. In reality the dimension equals the number of genes, the landscape changes with the environment, and organisms reshape the terrain themselves.

尽管有这些限制,二维景观仍然是理解”为什么会卡住”的最好玩具。考虑下面这个有两个峰的地形:

Despite these caveats, a two-dimensional landscape is still the best toy for understanding why search gets stuck. Consider the two-peaked terrain below:

Code
land_fun <- function(a, b) {
  1.60 * exp(-((a - 1.0)^2 + (b - 1.0)^2) / 1.5) +
  1.00 * exp(-((a + 1.5)^2 + (b + 1.3)^2) / 1.2) +
  0.30 * exp(-((a + 0.1)^2 + (b - 2.2)^2) / 0.7)
}

gx <- seq(-3, 3, length.out = 70)
land_mat <- outer(gx, gx, land_fun)
facet_z <- (land_mat[-1, -1] + land_mat[-1, -ncol(land_mat)] +
            land_mat[-nrow(land_mat), -1] + land_mat[-nrow(land_mat), -ncol(land_mat)]) / 4
col_mat <- matrix(colorRampPalette(blog_gradient)(120)[cut(facet_z, 120)],
                  nrow = nrow(facet_z))

par(bg = "transparent", mar = c(0.1, 0.1, 0.4, 0.1), family = "sans")
persp(gx, gx, land_mat, theta = 38, phi = 24, col = col_mat, border = NA,
      shade = 0.35, ticktype = "simple", cex.axis = 0.55, cex.lab = 0.75,
      xlab = "trait 1", ylab = "trait 2", zlab = "fitness")
Figure 2: 一个教学用的适应度景观:两个高度不同的峰,外加一个很小的肩部。真实景观的维度等于基因数,这里压到二维只为了能画出来。 | A teaching landscape: two peaks of unequal height plus a small shoulder. A real landscape has as many dimensions as genes; it is squashed to two here only so that it can be drawn.

如果把一个种群放在这个地形上,让它只做一件事——找到更高的邻居就搬过去——它会走到哪个峰?答案是:取决于它从哪里出发。下图画了三条这样的”爬山轨迹”,起点只差一点点,终点却是两个完全不同的峰。

If you drop a population on this terrain and let it do one thing only — move to a higher neighbour whenever one exists — which peak does it reach? The answer depends on where it starts. The figure below draws three such hill-climbing paths whose starting points differ only slightly but whose endpoints are two completely different peaks.

Code
hill_climb <- function(start, fun, step = 0.03, max_it = 900) {
  pts <- matrix(start, ncol = 2)
  cur <- start
  for (i in seq_len(max_it)) {
    cand <- cbind(cur[1] + c(-1, 0, 1, -1, 1, -1, 0, 1) * step,
                  cur[2] + c(-1, -1, -1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1) * step)
    vals <- fun(cand[, 1], cand[, 2])
    best <- which.max(vals)
    if (vals[best] <= fun(cur[1], cur[2]) + 1e-10) break
    cur <- cand[best, ]
    pts <- rbind(pts, cur)
  }
  as_tibble(pts) |> setNames(c("x", "y")) |> mutate(step = seq_len(n()))
}

starts <- list(c(-2.6, 2.4), c(-0.4, 2.2), c(0.3, -2.4))
walks <- lapply(seq_along(starts), function(i) {
  hill_climb(starts[[i]], land_fun) |> mutate(path = paste("start", i))
}) |> bind_rows()

grid_df <- expand.grid(x = gx, y = gx) |> mutate(z = land_fun(x, y))

ggplot() +
  geom_raster(data = grid_df, aes(x, y, fill = z), alpha = 0.55) +
  geom_contour(data = grid_df, aes(x, y, z = z), colour = "white",
               linewidth = 0.28, bins = 12) +
  geom_path(data = walks, aes(x, y, colour = path), linewidth = 0.8,
            arrow = arrow(length = unit(0.12, "cm"), type = "closed")) +
  geom_point(data = walks |> group_by(path) |> slice(1), aes(x, y, colour = path),
             shape = 1, size = 2.4, stroke = 0.8) +
  scale_fill_gradientn(colours = blog_gradient) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = unname(blog_pal[c("vermillion", "blue", "green")])) +
  coord_equal() +
  labs(x = "trait 1", y = "trait 2", fill = "fitness", colour = NULL)
Figure 3: 同一景观上的三条爬山轨迹。起点只差 0.2 个坐标单位,两条落在较高的峰,一条落在较低的峰——这就是路径依赖(path dependence)。灰线是等高线,等高线越密说明坡越陡。 | Three hill-climbing paths on the same landscape. The starting points differ by 0.2 units, yet two paths end on the higher peak and one on the lower peak: path dependence. Grey lines are contours; denser contours mean steeper slopes.

这就是”局部最优”的含义:一个点,它的所有邻居都比它差,但它不是全局最好。对梯度下降来说这是致命的——一阶方法没有任何机制知道山那边还有更高的山。进化同样常常卡住,但它是被卡住之后还能不能出来的问题,而这一点取决于种群大小、景观崎岖程度和有没有别的随机性。

This is what “local optimum” means: a point whose every neighbour is worse, yet which is not the global best. For gradient descent this is fatal — a first-order method has no mechanism for knowing that a taller mountain lies beyond. Evolution also gets stuck, but the real question is whether it can escape, and that depends on population size, ruggedness and the other sources of randomness available.

要让”崎岖”从形容词变成可计算的量,最常用的工具是 Stuart Kauffman 在 1989 年提出的 NK 模型。规则很简单:\(N\) 个基因座,每个基因座对适应度的贡献取决于它自己和另外 \(K\) 个基因座,总适应度是 \(N\) 个贡献的平均:

To turn “rugged” from an adjective into a computable quantity, the standard tool is the NK model of Stuart Kauffman (1989). The rule is simple: there are \(N\) loci, and the contribution of each locus depends on itself plus \(K\) other loci; total fitness is the mean of the \(N\) contributions:

\[ f(\mathbf{g}) = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N} f_i\left(g_i, g_{i_1}, \dots, g_{i_K}\right). \]

\(K = 0\) 时每个基因独立贡献,景观是光滑的单峰;\(K = N-1\) 时每个基因和所有其他基因互作,景观完全随机化,布满局部最优。\(K\) 从 0 走到 \(N-1\),就是从”可预测”走到”不可预测”的一条连续路径。

When \(K = 0\) each locus contributes independently, so the landscape is smooth and single-peaked; when \(K = N-1\) every locus interacts with every other, the landscape is fully randomized and studded with local optima. Moving \(K\) from 0 to \(N-1\) is a continuous road from predictable to unpredictable.

Code
nk_slice <- function(N, K, steps = 260, seed = 1) {
  set.seed(seed)
  model <- make_nk(N, K, seed)
  g <- sample(c(0, 1), N, replace = TRUE)
  out <- numeric(steps)
  out[1] <- nk_fit(model, matrix(g, nrow = 1))
  for (s in 2:steps) {
    i <- sample.int(N, 1)
    g[i] <- 1 - g[i]
    out[s] <- nk_fit(model, matrix(g, nrow = 1))
  }
  tibble(step = seq_len(steps), fitness = out, K = paste0("K = ", K))
}

slices <- lapply(c(0, 2, 6, 11), function(k) nk_slice(20, k, seed = 7)) |> bind_rows() |>
  mutate(K = factor(K, levels = paste0("K = ", c(0, 2, 6, 11))))

ggplot(slices, aes(step, fitness)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 0.45, colour = blog_pal[["blue"]]) +
  facet_wrap(~ K, nrow = 1) +
  labs(x = "step along a random genotype walk", y = "fitness")
Figure 4: NK 模型的崎岖程度随 K 增长。四张图都是沿同一条随机游走路径(每次翻转一个基因座)采样的适应度剖面,N = 20。K = 0 时单步最多只能改变 1/20,剖面是一条被夹在窄带里的细碎行走;K = 11 时单步就能让适应度跳变 0.2 以上,剖面已经没有任何可读结构。 | Ruggedness grows with K in the NK model. Each panel samples fitness along one random walk through genotype space (one locus flipped per step) with N = 20. At K = 0 a single step can change fitness by at most 1/20, so the profile is a fine walk inside a narrow band; at K = 11 one step can move fitness by more than 0.2 and no readable structure remains.
Code
nk_stats <- function(N, K, n_start = 300, seed = 11) {
  set.seed(seed)
  model <- make_nk(N, K, seed)
  mods <- replicate(n_start, paste(adaptive_walk(model, sample(c(0, 1), N, TRUE))$geno,
                                   collapse = ""))
  list(K = K, optima = length(unique(mods)))
}

k_grid <- c(0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11)
opt_tbl <- lapply(k_grid, function(k) nk_stats(20, k)) |>
  lapply(as.data.frame) |> bind_rows() |> as_tibble()

ggplot(opt_tbl, aes(factor(K), optima)) +
  geom_col(fill = blog_pal[["green"]], width = 0.62) +
  geom_text(aes(label = optima), vjust = -0.45, size = 2.6,
            colour = blog_pal[["grey"]]) +
  scale_y_log10() +
  labs(x = "K (number of epistatic partners)", y = "distinct local optima\n(out of 300 walks)")
Figure 5: 局部最优的数目随 K 爆炸。每个 K 值从 300 个随机起点各爬一次山,统计落点中互不相同的局部最优数(N = 20,300 次重复的箱线)。K = 0 时全空间只有一个最优,K = 11 时数百个起点落在几十个不同的峰上。 | The number of local optima explodes with K. For each K, 300 random starts climb to a local optimum and distinct endpoints are counted (N = 20; boxes over 300 replicates). At K = 0 the whole space has one optimum; at K = 11 hundreds of starts land on dozens of different peaks.
Code
walk_len <- function(N, K, n_start = 200, seed = 21) {
  set.seed(seed)
  model <- make_nk(N, K, seed)
  lens <- replicate(n_start, length(adaptive_walk(model, sample(c(0, 1), N, TRUE))$path) - 1)
  tibble(K = K, steps = lens)
}

walk_tbl <- lapply(k_grid, function(k) walk_len(20, k)) |> bind_rows()

ggplot(walk_tbl, aes(factor(K), steps)) +
  geom_boxplot(width = 0.55, outlier.size = 0.5, outlier.colour = blog_pal[["grey"]],
               fill = blog_pal[["sky"]], alpha = 0.55, linewidth = 0.35) +
  labs(x = "K (number of epistatic partners)", y = "accepted steps per adaptive walk")
Figure 6: 爬山能走多远也随 K 变化。K 越大,单步改进的空间越小,轮次越短,而且一开始的适应度更低——在崎岖景观上,进化更容易被「锁死」在小台阶上。 | How far hill climbing gets also depends on K. Larger K means fewer improving steps, shorter walks and lower starting fitness: on rugged landscapes evolution is easily locked onto small ledges.

这些图给出一个不太舒服的结论:在崎岖景观上,爬山的效率随 \(K\) 迅速下降,落点越来越随机。Kauffman 用这个模型说明,复杂生物之所以”能进化”,一部分原因是它们把 \(K\) 控制在了可承受的范围——通过模块化、冗余和稳健性,把一张布满尖刺的景观改造成若干张光滑的小景观。这个想法会在第 7 章重新出现。

These figures give an uncomfortable conclusion: on rugged landscapes the efficiency of hill climbing drops quickly with \(K\), and the endpoints become increasingly arbitrary. Kauffman used the model to argue that complex organisms remain “evolvable” partly because they keep \(K\) within a workable range — through modularity, redundancy and robustness, turning one spiky landscape into several smooth small ones. That idea returns in chapter 7.

4. 随机与方向:选择、漂变、突变偏向 / Randomness and direction

很多人对进化的印象是”自然选择让生物越来越好”。这句话在单句层面没错,但它省略了另外两个同等重要的力量:遗传漂变(drift)和突变偏向(mutation bias)。把三者分开看清楚,是理解”进化是不是优化算法”的关键一步。

The popular picture of evolution is “natural selection makes organisms better and better”. That sentence is not wrong, but it leaves out two equally important forces: genetic drift and mutation bias. Separating the three is a key step towards answering whether evolution is an optimization algorithm.

漂变是采样的必然结果。即使所有个体适应度相同,下一代的等位基因频率也不会精确等于这一代,因为繁殖是有限次抽样。群体越小,抽样噪声越大。下面这个模拟把”完全中性”(\(s = 0\))的情形画出来:三条曲线唯一的区别是群体大小。

Drift is the inevitable consequence of sampling. Even if every individual has identical fitness, allele frequencies in the next generation are not exactly those of this generation, because reproduction is a finite sample. The smaller the population, the larger the sampling noise. The simulation below draws the purely neutral case (\(s = 0\)); the only thing that differs between the three panels is population size.

Code
wf_neutral <- function(N, p0 = 0.5, gens = 300, reps = 40, seed = 3) {
  set.seed(seed)
  out <- matrix(NA_real_, gens, reps)
  for (r in seq_len(reps)) {
    p <- p0
    out[1, r] <- p
    for (t in 2:gens) {
      p <- rbinom(1, 2 * N, p) / (2 * N)
      out[t, r] <- p
      if (p %in% c(0, 1)) { out[t:gens, r] <- p; break }
    }
  }
  as_tibble(out) |>
    mutate(gen = seq_len(gens)) |>
    pivot_longer(-gen, names_to = "rep", values_to = "freq") |>
    mutate(N = paste0("N = ", N))
}

bind_rows(wf_neutral(10), wf_neutral(100), wf_neutral(1000)) |>
  ggplot(aes(gen, freq, group = rep)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 0.3, alpha = 0.55, colour = blog_pal[["blue"]]) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = c(0, 1), linewidth = 0.25, colour = blog_pal[["grey"]]) +
  facet_wrap(~ N, nrow = 1) +
  labs(x = "generation", y = "allele frequency")
Figure 7: 中性漂变。群体越小,等位基因频率的随机游走越快,固定(频率到 0 或 1)越早发生。N = 10 时几十代就固定,N = 1000 时几百代仍在中间徘徊。 | Neutral drift. Smaller populations wander faster and fix (hit frequency 0 or 1) sooner. At N = 10 fixation takes a few dozen generations; at N = 1000 the frequency is still hovering near the middle after hundreds.

选择则是有方向的。Kimura 在 1962 年用扩散近似给出了一个漂亮的结果:一个初始频率为 \(1/(2N)\) 的新突变,在恒定选择系数 \(s\) 下最终固定的概率,在 \(|s| \ll 1\) 时近似为

Selection, by contrast, has direction. Kimura’s 1962 diffusion approximation gives a neat result: a new mutation starting at frequency \(1/(2N)\) with a constant selection coefficient \(s\) fixes with probability, for \(|s| \ll 1\),

\[ p_{\text{fix}}(s, N) \approx \frac{2s}{1 - e^{-2Ns}} , \]

它的精确形式是 \((1-e^{-2s})/(1-e^{-2Ns})\),两者在 \(|s| \ll 1\) 时一致。当 \(s \to 0\) 时上式退化为 \(1/N\),也就是纯漂变的中性预期。这个公式最有用的一点,是它把”选择”和”漂变”的相对强度压缩成一个无量纲数 \(Ns\):\(|Ns| \ll 1\) 时突变近似中性,\(Ns \gg 1\) 时选择主导。

whose exact form is \((1-e^{-2s})/(1-e^{-2Ns})\), and the two agree for \(|s| \ll 1\). As \(s \to 0\) it reduces to \(1/N\), the neutral expectation under pure drift. The most useful feature of this formula is that it compresses the relative strength of selection and drift into one dimensionless number, \(Ns\): when \(|Ns| \ll 1\) the mutation is effectively neutral, when \(Ns \gg 1\) selection dominates.

Code
p_fix <- function(s, N) {
  out <- ifelse(abs(s) < 1e-9, 1 / N, (2 * s) / (1 - exp(-2 * N * s)))
  pmin(pmax(out, 0), 1)
}

s_grid <- seq(-0.02, 0.06, length.out = 260)
fix_df <- bind_rows(lapply(c(10, 100, 1000), function(n) {
  tibble(s = s_grid, p = p_fix(s_grid, n), N = paste0("N = ", n), Ns = s_grid * n)
}))

p_fix_a <- ggplot(fix_df, aes(s, p, colour = N)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 0.75) +
  geom_hline(aes(yintercept = 1 / as.numeric(sub("N = ", "", N)), colour = N),
             linetype = "22", linewidth = 0.3, alpha = 0.6) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = unname(blog_pal[c("blue", "green", "vermillion")])) +
  labs(x = "selection coefficient s", y = "fixation probability", colour = NULL)

p_fix_b <- ggplot(fix_df, aes(Ns, p, colour = N)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 0.75) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = c(-1, 1), linetype = "13", linewidth = 0.3,
             colour = blog_pal[["grey"]]) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = unname(blog_pal[c("blue", "green", "vermillion")])) +
  labs(x = "N x s", y = "fixation probability", colour = NULL)

p_fix_a | p_fix_b
Figure 8: 左:固定概率随选择系数变化,三条线的群体大小不同(虚线是中性预期 1/N)。右:把横轴换成 N·s 之后,三条曲线几乎重合——决定命运的不是 s 本身,而是 s 与群体大小的乘积。 | Left: fixation probability against the selection coefficient for three population sizes (dashed line is the neutral expectation 1/N). Right: with N·s on the horizontal axis the three curves nearly collapse — fate is decided by the product of s and population size, not by s alone.

这张图的右半边值得记住:\(|Ns| \approx 1\) 是一条分界线,线的左边漂变说了算,线的右边选择说了算。自然界的巨大差异(有效群体大小可以差六个数量级)意味着同一套突变在有的物种里是”看不见的噪声”,在另一些物种里却是”决定性的优势”。

Remember the right-hand panel: \(|Ns| \approx 1\) is a boundary — drift rules to its left, selection to its right. The enormous range of effective population sizes in nature (six orders of magnitude and more) means the same mutation can be invisible noise in one species and a decisive advantage in another.

突变偏向是第三个力量:突变并不是均匀地出现在所有位点上,转位、CpG 脱氨、串联重复的滑移都有各自的偏好。在弱选择(\(|Ns|\) 小)的区域,偏向会直接决定进化方向;在强选择区域,它只提供一个偏置的”提议分布”。

Mutation bias is the third force: mutations are not uniform across sites — transitions, CpG deamination and slippage in tandem repeats each have their own preferences. Where selection is weak (\(|Ns|\) small) the bias can set the direction of evolution outright; where selection is strong it only biases the proposal distribution.

把三者写进一个等式,最优雅的形式是 Price 方程。对任一性状 \(z\),下一代均值的变化可以分解为

The most elegant way to put all three into one equation is the Price equation. For any trait \(z\), the change in the mean across one generation decomposes as

\[ \Delta \bar z = \frac{\operatorname{Cov}(w, z)}{\bar w} + \frac{\mathbb{E}[w \, \Delta z]}{\bar w}, \]

第一项是”选择”——性状与适应度的协方差,第二项是”传递”——个体在繁殖过程中性状自身的改变(突变、重组、环境诱导)。漂变不在这一项里,因为 Price 方程是对期望的描述;要把它放进来,需要把 \(\operatorname{Cov}\) 换成有限样本的估计,于是协方差里多出一个采样误差项。这个细节很重要:漂变不是一种”力”,而是有限样本下选择估计的误差。

The first term is selection — the covariance between trait and fitness; the second is transmission — changes of the trait within individuals during reproduction (mutation, recombination, environment-induced change). Drift is not in this formula because Price’s equation describes an expectation; to include it one replaces the covariance with a finite-sample estimate, and the covariance then acquires a sampling-error term. The detail matters: drift is not a force, it is the error of a finite-sample estimate of selection.

5. 穿越低谷:为什么进化没有被局部最优困死 / Crossing valleys

回到第 3 章的问题:如果景观有多个峰,进化怎么从一个峰走到另一个?有三种已知机制,它们在数学上都很清楚。

Back to the question from chapter 3: with several peaks, how does evolution get from one to another? Three mechanisms are known, and all are mathematically clear.

第一种是漂变。 把群体缩到足够小,让 \(|Ns| \lesssim 1\),这时向下的坡和向上的坡在动力学上没有区别,种群可以像醉汉一样走过低谷。代价是它也会随机地走错方向,所以漂变是一把双刃剑。

The first is drift. Shrink the population until \(|Ns| \lesssim 1\); then downhill and uphill steps are dynamically indistinguishable, and the population can wander across a valley like a drunkard. The price is that it also wanders the wrong way, so drift cuts both ways.

Code
L_val <- 20
w_val <- 0.90 + 0.10 * cos(2 * pi * (0:L_val) / L_val)
mu_val <- 0.05
up_val <- mu_val * (L_val - (0:L_val)) / L_val
down_val <- mu_val * (0:L_val) / L_val

sim_chain <- function(N, w, up, down, gens, init = 1, seed = 5) {
  set.seed(seed)
  L <- length(w) - 1
  M <- matrix(0, L + 1, L + 1)
  for (k in 0:L) {
    stay <- 1 - up[k + 1] - down[k + 1]
    M[k + 1, k + 1] <- max(stay, 0)
    if (k < L) M[k + 1, k + 2] <- up[k + 1]
    if (k > 0) M[k + 1, k] <- down[k + 1]
  }
  n <- numeric(L + 1); n[init] <- N
  mk <- mf <- numeric(gens)
  for (t in seq_len(gens)) {
    mk[t] <- sum(n * (0:L)) / N
    mf[t] <- sum(n * w) / N
    p <- n * w / sum(n * w)
    q <- as.vector(p %*% M)
    q <- pmax(q, 0); q <- q / sum(q)
    n <- as.vector(rmultinom(1, N, q))
  }
  tibble(gen = seq_len(gens), mean_k = mk, mean_fitness = mf)
}

valley <- bind_rows(
  lapply(c(20, 5000), function(n) {
    bind_rows(lapply(1:6, function(r) sim_chain(n, w_val, up_val, down_val, 4000, seed = r))) |>
      group_by(gen) |> summarise(mean_k = mean(mean_k), mean_fitness = mean(mean_fitness),
                                 .groups = "drop") |>
      mutate(N = paste0("N = ", n))
  })
)

ggplot(valley, aes(gen, mean_k, colour = N)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 0.6, alpha = 0.85) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = unname(blog_pal[c("vermillion", "blue")])) +
  labs(x = "generation", y = "mean number of accumulated mutations", colour = NULL)
Figure 9: 小群体可以穿过适应度低谷,大群体不能。地形是 0 到 20 个突变步上的双峰景观(两端适应度 1.0,中点 0.9,每步选择系数约 0.015)。N = 20 时种群在两峰之间来回游荡,平均累计突变数长到 9 附近;N = 5000 时被钉在出发峰脚下,只带着一点突变负荷(约 2.6)——它拿不到对面那个同样高的峰。 | Small populations cross fitness valleys, large ones cannot. The terrain is a two-peaked landscape over 0–20 mutational steps (fitness 1.0 at both ends, 0.9 in the middle, about 0.015 of selection per step). At N = 20 the population wanders between the two peaks, with the mean number of accumulated mutations rising to about 9; at N = 5000 it stays at the foot of the starting peak with a small mutation load (about 2.6) and never reaches the equally high peak on the other side.

第二种是中性路径。 如果从峰 A 到峰 B 之间存在一条所有点适应度都不下降的路径,那么这条路径在最优化意义上就是”平的”,选择不会阻止种群沿它前进。这类路径是否存在,完全取决于基因型—表型映射的结构,第 6 章会专门处理。

The second is a neutral path. If there is a route from peak A to peak B along which fitness never decreases, that route is flat in the optimisation sense and selection will not block movement along it. Whether such routes exist depends entirely on the structure of the genotype–phenotype map, which is the subject of chapter 6.

第三种是重组。 有性繁殖把两个不同个体上的有利突变拼到一起,这在数学上等价于在搜索过程中加入了”多点跳跃”算子。它让种群能够绕过中间的低谷,但也带来代价:重组会打破有利的组合(recombination load),而且两个相距很远的解拼在一起常常是垃圾。

The third is recombination. Sex combines favourable mutations carried by two different individuals, which is mathematically a multi-point jump operator in the search. It lets a population bypass intermediate valleys, but it also breaks up favourable combinations (recombination load), and stitching together two distant solutions often produces garbage.

还有一个反方向的边界条件:突变率不能无限提高。Eigen 的准物种模型给出了一个硬上限。设一条长度为 \(L\) 的”主序列”适应度为 \(\sigma\),其他所有序列适应度为 1,每个位点每代以概率 \(\mu\) 突变,那么主序列的复制准确率是 \(Q = (1-\mu)^L\),当 \(\sigma Q < 1\) 时,选择再也”抓不住”主序列,种群退化成均匀分布的突变云。

There is also a boundary condition in the opposite direction: mutation rates cannot rise indefinitely. Eigen’s quasispecies model gives a hard ceiling. Take a “master sequence” of length \(L\) with fitness \(\sigma\), all other sequences having fitness 1, and a per-site mutation probability \(\mu\). The master’s replication accuracy is \(Q = (1-\mu)^L\), and once \(\sigma Q < 1\) selection can no longer hold on to the master: the population collapses into a uniform cloud of mutants.

\[ \mu^{*} = 1 - \sigma^{-1/L} \]

Code
L_q <- 30
sigma_q <- 5
mu_grid <- seq(0.0, 0.10, by = 0.004)

quasispecies <- function(mu, N = 1000, gens = 400, seed = 9) {
  set.seed(seed)
  pop <- matrix(0L, N, L_q)
  w <- numeric(gens)
  for (g in seq_len(gens)) {
    d <- rowSums(pop)
    fit <- ifelse(d == 0, sigma_q, 1)
    idx <- sample.int(N, N, TRUE, prob = fit)
    pop <- pop[idx, , drop = FALSE]
    mut <- matrix(runif(N * L_q) < mu, N, L_q)
    pop[mut] <- 1L - pop[mut]
    w[g] <- mean(fit)
  }
  mean(tail(w, 100))
}

q_tbl <- tibble(mu = mu_grid, mean_fitness = vapply(mu_grid, quasispecies, numeric(1)))
mu_star <- 1 - sigma_q^(-1 / L_q)

ggplot(q_tbl, aes(mu, mean_fitness)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 0.8, colour = blog_pal[["purple"]]) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = mu_star, linetype = "22", linewidth = 0.4,
             colour = blog_pal[["grey"]]) +
  annotate("text", x = mu_star + 0.002, y = 4.2,
           label = sprintf("mu* = %.3f", mu_star), hjust = 0, size = 2.8,
           colour = blog_pal[["grey"]]) +
  labs(x = "per-site mutation rate mu", y = "equilibrium mean fitness")
Figure 10: 错误阈值。主序列适应度 σ = 5,序列长度 L = 30,模拟群体 N = 1000,每代对每个位点以概率 μ 做一次突变。μ 增大时平均适应度下降,但真正的事件发生在 μ* ≈ 0.052:越过它以后主序列彻底丢失,曲线平在 1 上。这是相变,不是渐变。 | The error threshold. Master fitness σ = 5, sequence length L = 30, simulated population N = 1000, with each site mutating with probability μ per generation. Mean fitness falls as μ grows, but the real event is at μ* ≈ 0.052: beyond it the master sequence is lost completely and the curve goes flat at 1. This is a phase transition, not a gradual decline.

这个结果的意义在于:进化不是”变异越多越好”。太少,搜索会在局部最优里停住;太多,选择信息被突变噪声淹没。中间存在一个最优区间,而且这个区间的宽度取决于基因组长度和适应度差异——这一点在第 8 章讨论开放式进化时会再次用到。

The point is that evolution is not “more variation is better”. Too little and the search stalls in a local optimum; too much and mutational noise drowns the signal of selection. An optimum sits in between, and the width of that window depends on genome length and fitness differences — a fact that returns in chapter 8 on open-endedness.

6. 中性网络:在看不见的维度上行走 / Neutral networks: walking in invisible dimensions

第 2 章说空间大得不可想象。但”空间大”和”难以搜索”并不是同一件事:如果大量不同的序列折叠成同一个功能,那么这个空间里就存在大片的”高原”,在高原上可以自由行走而不损失适应度。这就是基因型—表型映射的冗余(redundancy),而高原上连通的区域就叫中性网络。

Chapter 2 said the space is unimaginably large. But “large” and “hard to search” are not the same thing: if many different sequences fold into the same function, the space contains large plateaus along which one can move freely without losing fitness. That is redundancy in the genotype–phenotype map, and the connected regions of such plateaus are called neutral networks.

Code
L_n <- 9
geno_n <- expand.grid(rep(list(0:1), L_n)) |> as.matrix()
pheno_n <- apply(geno_n, 1, function(g) {
  bits <- vapply(1:3, function(j) as.integer(sum(g[c(j, j + 3, j + 6)]) >= 2), integer(1))
  bits[1] * 4 + bits[2] * 2 + bits[3]
})

edge_list <- do.call(rbind, lapply(seq_len(L_n), function(i) {
  flipped <- geno_n
  flipped[, i] <- 1 - flipped[, i]
  key <- apply(flipped, 1, paste, collapse = "")
  cbind(seq_len(nrow(geno_n)), match(key, apply(geno_n, 1, paste, collapse = "")))
}))
edge_list <- edge_list[pheno_n[edge_list[, 1]] == pheno_n[edge_list[, 2]], ]

g_net <- graph_from_data_frame(
  data.frame(from = edge_list[, 1], to = edge_list[, 2]),
  directed = FALSE,
  vertices = data.frame(name = seq_len(nrow(geno_n)))
)
g_net <- delete_vertices(g_net, which(degree(g_net) == 0))
V(g_net)$pheno <- factor(pheno_n[as.integer(V(g_net)$name)])
set.seed(4)
lay <- layout_with_fr(g_net, niter = 500)

net_df <- tibble(x = lay[, 1], y = lay[, 2], pheno = V(g_net)$pheno)
el_id <- as_edgelist(g_net, names = FALSE)
net_seg <- tibble(
  x = lay[el_id[, 1], 1], y = lay[el_id[, 1], 2],
  xend = lay[el_id[, 2], 1], yend = lay[el_id[, 2], 2]
)

ggplot() +
  geom_segment(data = net_seg, aes(x, y, xend = xend, yend = yend),
               linewidth = 0.12, colour = blog_pal[["grey"]], alpha = 0.35) +
  geom_point(data = net_df, aes(x, y, colour = pheno), size = 0.85) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = colorRampPalette(pal)(16)) +
  coord_equal() +
  labs(colour = "phenotype", x = NULL, y = NULL)
Figure 11: 一个玩具基因型网络。9 位二元基因型(512 个),表型由三组「多数票」决定:第 j 个表型位是基因位 {j, j+3, j+6} 中占多数的那个值。每个表型恰好对应 64 个基因型。每个点是一个基因型,连线连接只差一个突变且表型相同的邻居,颜色表示表型。同一颜色的点大多连成一片——这正是中性网络。 | A toy genotype network. Nine-bit genotypes (512 of them); the phenotype is three majority votes over the triples {j, j+3, j+6}, so each phenotype owns exactly 64 genotypes. Each dot is a genotype, edges join Hamming-1 neighbours with the same phenotype, and colour marks the phenotype. Dots of one colour mostly form a single connected region — that is a neutral network.

这张图里藏着两个重要事实。第一,中性网络是连通的:一个表型对应的 64 个基因型可以通过单步突变互相走到,不需要穿越适应度低谷。第二,不同表型的网络在空间里是交织的:颜色块彼此相邻,说明从任何一个网络出发,只要走一步就越过了表型边界。

Two important facts are hidden in this picture. First, neutral networks are connected: the 64 genotypes of one phenotype can be reached from each other by single mutations, without crossing a fitness valley. Second, networks of different phenotypes are interwoven: the colour patches touch each other, so from any network a single step crosses a phenotype boundary.

Code
walk_neutral <- function(start_pheno = 1, steps = 6000, seed = 6) {
  set.seed(seed)
  key <- apply(geno_n, 1, paste, collapse = "")
  cur <- which(pheno_n == start_pheno)[1]
  seen_g <- cur
  seen_p <- integer(0)
  trace_g <- integer(steps); trace_p <- integer(steps)
  for (s in seq_len(steps)) {
    i <- sample.int(L_n, 1)
    nxt <- geno_n[cur, ]; nxt[i] <- 1 - nxt[i]
    idx <- match(paste(nxt, collapse = ""), key)
    if (pheno_n[idx] == start_pheno) cur <- idx
    neigh <- vapply(seq_len(L_n), function(i) {
      v <- geno_n[cur, ]; v[i] <- 1 - v[i]
      pheno_n[match(paste(v, collapse = ""), key)]
    }, numeric(1))
    seen_p <- union(seen_p, neigh)
    seen_g <- union(seen_g, cur)
    trace_g[s] <- length(seen_g)
    trace_p[s] <- length(seen_p)
  }
  tibble(step = seq_len(steps), genotypes = trace_g, phenotypes = trace_p)
}

nw <- walk_neutral()
nw_long <- nw |>
  pivot_longer(-step, names_to = "measure", values_to = "n") |>
  mutate(measure = recode(measure, genotypes = "distinct genotypes visited",
                          phenotypes = "phenotypes one step away"))

ggplot(nw_long, aes(step, n, colour = measure)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 0.8) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = unname(blog_pal[c("blue", "orange")])) +
  labs(x = "step on the neutral network", y = "cumulative count", colour = NULL)
Figure 12: 在中性网络上散步。随机走 6000 步,只接受保持表型不变的单步突变:大约 1000 步就把这个表型对应的 64 个基因型全部走遍。橙色是当前邻域里一步可达的其他表型数量,稳定在 4 个左右——中性网络提供的是「免费走动」,不是「无限创新」;创新必须越过边界才能拿到。 | Walking on a neutral network. Six thousand steps, accepting only single mutations that keep the phenotype unchanged: after about a thousand steps all 64 genotypes of this phenotype have been visited. Orange is the number of other phenotypes reachable in one step from the current neighbourhood, steady at about four — a neutral network gives free movement, not free innovation; innovation has to cross a boundary.

这两条线合起来就是”可进化性”的几何来源:中性网络(platform)提供稳健性,让种群在没有选择压力的情况下保持功能;而网络边界上的邻居数量几乎是常数(这里约 4 个),意味着创新的入口永远在一步之外,只是需要付出一点适应度代价才能跨过去。稳健性和新颖性不是两种能力,而是同一个结构的两个刻度。

Together the two lines give the geometric source of evolvability: the neutral network (platform) provides robustness, letting a population keep its function without selection pressure, while the number of neighbours just across the boundary is nearly constant (about four here), meaning that the doorway to innovation is always one step away — you just have to pay a small fitness cost to walk through it. Robustness and novelty are not two abilities but two readings of one structure.

7. 可进化性:为什么有的系统更容易变出新东西 / Evolvability

“可进化性”(evolvability)这个词有歧义:它可以指”能产生有利突变的能力”,也可以指”能在多长时间里持续产生适应”的能力。前者更像一个静态属性(种群的突变供给有多大),后者是一个动态属性(搜索算法能不能持续找到新东西)。在搜索算法的语言里,后者才是真正的核心:一个算法的价值不在于它第一次找到解,而在于它还能不能找到第二个、第三个解。

The word “evolvability” is ambiguous: it can mean the capacity to produce favourable mutations, or the capacity to keep producing adaptation over time. The first is closer to a static property (how much mutational supply a population carries), the second is dynamical (can the search keep finding new things). In the language of search algorithms the second is the real issue: an algorithm’s value is not that it finds a solution, but that it can still find a second and a third.

最直观的两个旋钮是”变异率”和”模块化”。先看变异率:在一张崎岖的景观上,太小的变异率会让种群在少数几个局部最优之间反复停留,太大的变异率会把已经找到的好组合打散。中间存在一个最优区间,但它的位置取决于景观的崎岖程度——也就是说,最优的搜索参数是被景观决定的,而不是被算法决定的。

The two most intuitive knobs are mutation rate and modularity. Take mutation rate first: on a rugged landscape, too small a rate lets the population stall among a few local optima, while too large a rate smashes the good combinations it has already found. An optimum lies in between, but where it sits depends on ruggedness — in other words, the best search parameter is set by the landscape, not by the algorithm.

Code
ga_run <- function(model, mu, pop_size = 200, gens = 300, seed = 1) {
  set.seed(seed)
  N <- model$N
  pop <- matrix(rbinom(pop_size * N, 1, 0.5), pop_size, N)
  fit <- nk_fit(model, pop)
  best <- max(fit)
  for (g in seq_len(gens)) {
    i1 <- sample.int(pop_size, pop_size, TRUE)
    i2 <- sample.int(pop_size, pop_size, TRUE)
    parents <- ifelse(fit[i1] >= fit[i2], i1, i2)
    kids <- pop[parents, , drop = FALSE]
    flip <- matrix(runif(pop_size * N) < mu, pop_size, N)
    kids[flip] <- 1 - kids[flip]
    pop <- kids
    fit <- nk_fit(model, pop)
    best <- max(best, max(fit))
  }
  best
}

mu_seq <- c(0, 0.001, 0.002, 0.005, 0.01, 0.02, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2)
model_ga <- make_nk(20, 8, seed = 31)
ga_tbl <- tibble(mu = mu_seq) |>
  rowwise() |>
  mutate(best = mean(replicate(6, ga_run(model_ga, mu, seed = sample.int(1e5, 1)))),
         se = sd(replicate(6, ga_run(model_ga, mu, seed = sample.int(1e5, 1)))) / sqrt(6)) |>
  ungroup()

ggplot(ga_tbl, aes(mu, best)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 0.7, colour = blog_pal[["blue"]]) +
  geom_point(size = 1.4, colour = blog_pal[["blue"]]) +
  geom_errorbar(aes(ymin = best - se, ymax = best + se), width = 0.004,
                linewidth = 0.3, colour = blog_pal[["grey"]]) +
  scale_x_continuous(trans = "pseudo_log", breaks = c(0, 0.01, 0.05, 0.2)) +
  labs(x = "per-site mutation rate", y = "best fitness after 300 generations")
Figure 13: 探索与利用的权衡。在 N = 20、K = 8 的 NK 景观上跑一个无性繁殖的遗传算法(种群 200,300 代,锦标赛选择),横轴是每个位点的突变率。太低时种群过早收敛,太高时无法保住好组合;峰值出现在中间,而且并不高——在崎岖景观上,任何参数都只能拿到景观允许的那部分。 | The explore–exploit trade-off. An asexual genetic algorithm (population 200, 300 generations, tournament selection) on an NK landscape with N = 20 and K = 8; the horizontal axis is the per-site mutation rate. Too low and the population converges prematurely, too high and good combinations cannot be kept; the peak sits in the middle and is not high — on a rugged landscape no parameter gets more than the landscape allows.

结果说得很清楚:变异率从 0 升上去,适应度先快速上升;\(0.01\) 到 \(0.05\) 之间是一段平台(最高点落在 0.05),再往上就开始下降。这个峰不是由算法决定的,而是由景观的崎岖程度决定的——同一个算法换一张更光滑的景观,最优点会移到更小的变异率上。

The result is clear: as the mutation rate rises from 0, fitness first climbs quickly; between \(0.01\) and \(0.05\) there is a plateau (highest at 0.05), and beyond that it falls again. The peak is set not by the algorithm but by the ruggedness of the landscape — move the same algorithm to a smoother landscape and the optimum shifts to a smaller mutation rate.

第二个旋钮是模块化。如果一张大景观可以拆成几个几乎独立的小景观,那么每一个小景观都更光滑(有效 \(K\) 更低),搜索在每一块上都更容易。物理上,这对应”一个基因只影响一个性状”;数学上,这是把高维崎岖问题分解成若干个低维光滑问题的组合——和机器学习里的”分而治之”完全同构。

The second knob is modularity. If one large landscape can be split into several nearly independent small ones, each small landscape is smoother (lower effective \(K\)) and easier to search. Physically this means “one gene affects one trait”; mathematically it decomposes a high-dimensional rugged problem into a combination of low-dimensional smooth ones — structurally identical to divide-and-conquer in machine learning.

Code
make_nk_block <- function(N, K, block, seed) {
  set.seed(seed)
  partners <- lapply(seq_len(N), function(i) {
    pool <- setdiff(which(block == block[i]), i)
    if (K > 0) c(i, sample(pool, min(K, length(pool)))) else i
  })
  list(N = N, K = K, partners = partners,
       tables = lapply(seq_len(N), function(i) runif(2^(length(partners[[i]])))))
}

ga_traj <- function(models, switch_at = 100, mu = 0.01, pop_size = 200,
                    gens = 200, seed = 1) {
  set.seed(seed)
  model <- models[[1]]
  N <- model$N
  pop <- matrix(rbinom(pop_size * N, 1, 0.5), pop_size, N)
  fit <- nk_fit(model, pop)
  tr <- numeric(gens)
  for (g in seq_len(gens)) {
    if (g == switch_at) { model <- models[[2]]; fit <- nk_fit(model, pop) }
    i1 <- sample.int(pop_size, pop_size, TRUE)
    i2 <- sample.int(pop_size, pop_size, TRUE)
    parents <- ifelse(fit[i1] >= fit[i2], i1, i2)
    kids <- pop[parents, , drop = FALSE]
    flip <- matrix(runif(pop_size * N) < mu, pop_size, N)
    kids[flip] <- 1 - kids[flip]
    pop <- kids
    fit <- nk_fit(model, pop)
    tr[g] <- mean(fit)
  }
  tibble(gen = seq_len(gens), mean_fitness = tr)
}

blocks <- rep(1:2, each = 12)

build_pair <- function(block, r) {
  mA <- make_nk_block(24, 4, block, seed = r)
  mB <- mA
  mB$tables[13:24] <- lapply(1:12, function(i) runif(2^5))
  list(mA, mB)
}

summarise_runs <- function(runs, label) {
  bind_rows(runs) |>
    group_by(gen) |>
    summarise(lo = min(mean_fitness), hi = max(mean_fitness),
              mid = mean(mean_fitness), .groups = "drop") |>
    mutate(architecture = label)
}

traj_mod <- lapply(1:8, function(r) ga_traj(build_pair(blocks, r), seed = r))
traj_mod <- summarise_runs(traj_mod, "modular (2 x 12)")

traj_ent <- lapply(1:8, function(r) ga_traj(build_pair(rep(1, 24), r), seed = r))
traj_ent <- summarise_runs(traj_ent, "entangled (1 x 24)")

bind_rows(traj_mod, traj_ent) |>
  ggplot(aes(gen, mid, colour = architecture, fill = architecture)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lo, ymax = hi), alpha = 0.15, colour = NA) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 0.8) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 100, linetype = "22", linewidth = 0.35,
             colour = blog_pal[["grey"]]) +
  annotate("text", x = 103, y = 0.52, label = "environment change",
           hjust = 0, size = 2.5, colour = blog_pal[["grey"]]) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = unname(blog_pal[c("vermillion", "green")])) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = unname(blog_pal[c("vermillion", "green")])) +
  labs(x = "generation", y = "mean population fitness", colour = NULL, fill = NULL)
Figure 14: 模块化缓冲突发的环境改变。两种架构的基因数(24)与每个基因的互作数(4)相同,区别只在于伙伴是从模块内抽取(橙)还是从全基因组抽取(绿)。第 100 代时只重写第二模块的适应度表,相当于换了一个环境:所有种群都掉下来,但模块化系统掉得更少、恢复更快,因为它没有被另一个模块拖住。 | Modularity buffers abrupt environmental change. Both architectures have 24 loci and four interactions per locus; the only difference is whether partners are drawn inside the module (orange) or genome-wide (green). At generation 100 only the second module’s fitness tables are rewritten, as if the environment changed: every population drops, but the modular one drops less and recovers faster because it is not dragged along by the other module.

数值上看,环境改变前两者都在 0.74 附近;改变后都掉到 0.62 上下,但一百代后模块化系统恢复到 0.735,entangled 只到 0.72。差距不大,但方向稳定,而且它说明的是模块化真正的功能:不是让搜索更快,而是让一次局部改动不至于把整个系统一起拖垮。

Numerically, both sit near 0.74 before the change; afterwards both fall to about 0.62, but a hundred generations later the modular system has recovered to 0.735 while the entangled one only reaches 0.72. The gap is modest but consistent, and it shows what modularity actually buys: not a faster search, but insulation, so that one local change does not drag the whole system down with it.

系统发育树提供了第三个视角:进化留下的”搜索痕迹”是可以被读出来的。下面这棵树上的两个性状模拟,用的是同一个随机树,只是一个按布朗运动演化(无方向的随机游走),一个按 OU 过程演化(被拉回一个最优值)。把性状映射到分支颜色上,两种过程的痕迹一目了然——这其实就是进化生物学里”用比较方法反推搜索过程”的标准做法。

Phylogenies give a third angle: the traces of a search can be read off directly. The two trait simulations below use the same random tree; one evolves by Brownian motion (an undirected random walk), the other by an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process (pulled back towards an optimum). Mapping the trait onto branch colours makes the two processes obvious — this is exactly the standard comparative method for inferring a search process from its traces.

Code
sim_trait <- function(phy, model = c("BM", "OU"), sigma = 1, alpha = 3, seed = 1) {
  set.seed(seed)
  model <- match.arg(model)
  n_node <- nrow(phy$edge) + 1
  val <- numeric(n_node)
  val[phy$edge[1, 1]] <- 0
  for (i in seq_len(nrow(phy$edge))) {
    p <- phy$edge[i, 1]; ch <- phy$edge[i, 2]; bl <- phy$edge.length[i]
    if (model == "BM") {
      val[ch] <- val[p] + rnorm(1, 0, sigma * sqrt(bl))
    } else {
      sd_ou <- sigma * sqrt((1 - exp(-2 * alpha * bl)) / (2 * alpha))
      val[ch] <- val[p] * exp(-alpha * bl) + rnorm(1, 0, sd_ou)
    }
  }
  val
}

set.seed(11)
phy <- rcoal(26)
bm_val <- sim_trait(phy, "BM", sigma = 0.9, seed = 2)
ou_val <- sim_trait(phy, "OU", sigma = 0.9, alpha = 6, seed = 2)

draw_trait_tree <- function(phy, val, title) {
  edge_col <- colorRampPalette(blog_gradient)(100)[
    cut((val[phy$edge[, 1]] + val[phy$edge[, 2]]) / 2, 100)]
  plot(phy, edge.color = edge_col, edge.width = 2.6, show.tip.label = FALSE,
       direction = "rightward", no.margin = TRUE, cex = 0.7)
  mtext(title, side = 3, line = -1.4, cex = 0.72, adj = 0.02, font = 2)
}

par(mfrow = c(1, 2), bg = "transparent", mar = c(0.4, 0.2, 1.2, 0.2), family = "sans")
draw_trait_tree(phy, bm_val, "Brownian motion (no optimum)")
draw_trait_tree(phy, ou_val, "OU process (pulled to an optimum)")
Figure 15: 同一棵树上两种性状演化模型的痕迹。左:布朗运动,没有最优值,差异随分支长度无界累积。右:OU 过程,被持续拉回一个中心值,树上的颜色更均匀。真实性状通常介于两者之间,而「测出来的 α 有多大」本身就是在问:这个性状被选择约束得有多紧。 | Traces of two trait models on the same tree. Left: Brownian motion, no optimum, variance accumulating without bound along branches. Right: an OU process pulled back towards a central value, giving more uniform colours. Real traits sit somewhere in between, and estimating alpha is really asking how tightly selection constrains the trait.

8. 开放式进化:为什么自然没有停下来 / Open-ended evolution

到目前为止我们一直假设 \(f\) 是给定的。但真实进化里最显著的现象恰恰是:\(f\) 一直在变,而且生物自己在改 \(f\)。捕食者演化出更快的腿,猎物就被迫演化出更快的腿;蓝细菌把大气氧化,从此所有厌氧生物都被推进了角落里。这类反馈让”最优解”这个概念本身失效——因为优化目标在搜索过程中被改写。

So far we have assumed \(f\) is given. But the most striking fact about real evolution is that \(f\) keeps changing, and organisms change \(f\) themselves. Predators evolve faster legs, prey are pushed to evolve faster legs; cyanobacteria oxygenate the atmosphere and every anaerobe is pushed into a corner. Such feedback makes the very notion of an “optimal solution” fail, because the objective is rewritten during the search.

开放式进化(open-ended evolution)的标准定义是:一个系统能持续产生”新颖且不断增长复杂度的”结构,而不是收敛到一个稳态。数字生命系统(Tom Ray 的 Tierra、Chris Adami 的 Avida)第一次把这件事做成了可重复实验:程序在虚拟 CPU 上自我复制、变异、竞争,然后系统自发出现寄生、寄生抗性、更小的基因组——这些都是”没有被编程进去”的新颖性。

Open-ended evolution is standardly defined as a system that keeps producing novel, ever more complex structures instead of converging to a steady state. Digital-life systems (Tom Ray’s Tierra, Chris Adami’s Avida) first turned this into a repeatable experiment: programs replicate, mutate and compete on a virtual CPU, and the system spontaneously produces parasites, parasite resistance, smaller genomes — novelty that was never programmed in.

Code
novelty_run <- function(open = FALSE, steps = 4000, seed = 7, niche_rate = 0.002) {
  set.seed(seed)
  key <- apply(geno_n, 1, paste, collapse = "")
  cur <- sample.int(nrow(geno_n), 1)
  niche <- 0L
  seen <- pheno_n[cur]
  trace <- integer(steps)
  for (s in seq_len(steps)) {
    # a new ecological context makes the same genotypes mean something new
    if (open && runif(1) < niche_rate) niche <- niche + 1L
    i <- sample.int(L_n, 1)
    nxt <- geno_n[cur, ]; nxt[i] <- 1 - nxt[i]
    cur <- match(paste(nxt, collapse = ""), key)
    ph <- pheno_n[cur] + 8L * niche
    if (!(ph %in% seen)) seen <- c(seen, ph)
    trace[s] <- length(seen)
  }
  tibble(step = seq_len(steps), novelty = trace,
         system = if (open) "open (niche construction)" else "closed (fixed space)")
}

nov <- bind_rows(novelty_run(TRUE), novelty_run(FALSE))

ggplot(nov, aes(step, novelty, colour = system)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 0.85) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = unname(blog_pal[c("vermillion", "blue")])) +
  labs(x = "step", y = "cumulative distinct phenotypes", colour = NULL)
Figure 16: 封闭系统与开放系统的新颖性增长。两者的基因型空间与突变算子完全相同,唯一区别是:封闭系统里表型只有 8 种,探索很快就结束;开放系统里偶尔开启一个新「生态位」,同一批基因型在新生态下对应新功能,于是可发现的功能集从 8 变成 16、24……累积新颖性持续增长——这就是「开放式」最朴素的数学含义。 | Novelty growth in closed and open systems. The genotype space and the mutation operator are identical; the only difference is that the closed system has eight phenotypes and is exhausted quickly, while the open system occasionally opens a new ‘niche’, under which the same genotypes map to new functions, so the discoverable set grows from 8 to 16 to 24 and cumulative novelty keeps rising — the plainest mathematical meaning of ‘open-ended’.

这张图很简单,但它把”开放式”和”复杂度”分开了:累积新颖性可以一直增长,而每一个个体的复杂度并没有增长。开放式进化真正需要的不是”更多种类”,而是新层次的出现——从分子到细胞、从细胞到多细胞、从个体到社会。Maynard Smith 和 Szathmáry 把这称为”重大进化转变”(major transitions),而每一次转变的共同点是:原来独立复制的单位,把复制权交给了更高层的单位。

The figure is simple, but it separates “open-ended” from “complex”: cumulative novelty can grow forever while the complexity of any individual stays put. What open-ended evolution really requires is not more kinds but the appearance of new levels — molecules to cells, cells to multicellularity, individuals to societies. Maynard Smith and Szathmáry called these major transitions, and their common feature is that independently replicating units hand their replication over to a higher-level unit.

9. 统一框架:进化、贝叶斯、梯度下降与强化学习 / One framework, five algorithms

现在到了全文最关键的一节。前面所有内容其实都在为同一个问题做准备:能不能把自然选择写成一个和梯度下降同类的更新规则?

We now reach the key section. Everything so far has been preparing one question: can natural selection be written as an update rule of the same kind as gradient descent?

先看最简单的情形。设一个无限大的无性繁殖种群,第 \(i\) 种基因型的频率是 \(x_i\),适应度是 \(f_i\),平均适应度 \(\bar f = \sum_j x_j f_j\)。一代之后

Start with the simplest case. Take an infinite asexual population where genotype \(i\) has frequency \(x_i\) and fitness \(f_i\), with mean fitness \(\bar f = \sum_j x_j f_j\). After one generation,

\[ x_i' = \frac{x_i f_i}{\bar f}. \]

把它写成连续时间、并对 \(\log x_i\) 求导,就得到 replicator 方程:

Writing this in continuous time and differentiating \(\log x_i\) gives the replicator equation:

\[ \dot x_i = x_i\left(f_i - \bar f\right). \]

这个方程和梯度上升长得几乎一样,但有一个本质区别:梯度上升在欧氏空间里按 \(\nabla f\) 走,而 replicator 方程是在概率单纯形上按 Fisher 信息度量(Shahshahani 度量)走。换句话说,replicator 方程就是平均适应度在自然梯度下的上升。这不是类比,是严格等式——它把”自然选择”和”自然梯度下降”这两个看起来毫不相干的东西连在了一起。

This looks almost exactly like gradient ascent, with one essential difference: gradient ascent moves along \(\nabla f\) in Euclidean space, while the replicator equation moves on the probability simplex under the Fisher information metric (the Shahshahani metric). In other words, the replicator equation is natural-gradient ascent on mean fitness. This is not an analogy but an identity, and it links natural selection to natural-gradient descent, two things that look unrelated.

Code
A_pay <- matrix(c(1, 0.2, 0.2,
                  0.2, 1, 0.2,
                  0.2, 0.2, 1), 3, 3, byrow = TRUE)

x0 <- c(0.55, 0.30, 0.15)

replicator_step <- function(x, dt = 0.02, steps = 900) {
  out <- matrix(NA_real_, steps, 3); out[1, ] <- x
  for (t in 2:steps) {
    fx <- as.numeric(A_pay %*% x)
    x <- x + dt * x * (fx - sum(x * fx))
    x <- pmax(x, 1e-12); x <- x / sum(x)
    out[t, ] <- x
  }
  out
}

euc_step <- function(x, dt = 0.02, steps = 900) {
  out <- matrix(NA_real_, steps, 3); out[1, ] <- x
  for (t in 2:steps) {
    g <- as.numeric((A_pay + t(A_pay)) %*% x)
    g <- g - mean(g)
    x <- x + dt * g
    x <- pmax(x, 0); x <- x / sum(x)
    out[t, ] <- x
  }
  out
}

to_xy <- function(m) tibble(x = m[, 2] + m[, 3] / 2, y = m[, 3] * sqrt(3) / 2,
                            step = seq_len(nrow(m)))

tri <- tibble(x = c(0, 1, 0.5, 0), y = c(0, 0, sqrt(3) / 2, 0))

# build the simplex raster in display coordinates, then map back to (a, b, c)
grid <- expand.grid(x = seq(0, 1, length.out = 320),
                    y = seq(0, sqrt(3) / 2, length.out = 300)) |>
  mutate(cc = 2 * y / sqrt(3), b = x - cc / 2, a = 1 - b - cc) |>
  filter(a >= 0, b >= 0, cc >= 0) |>
  mutate(fit = (a^2 * A_pay[1, 1] + b^2 * A_pay[2, 2] + cc^2 * A_pay[3, 3] +
                  a * b * (A_pay[1, 2] + A_pay[2, 1]) +
                  a * cc * (A_pay[1, 3] + A_pay[3, 1]) +
                  b * cc * (A_pay[2, 3] + A_pay[3, 2])))

p_rep <- ggplot() +
  geom_raster(data = grid, aes(x, y, fill = fit), alpha = 0.75) +
  geom_path(data = tri, aes(x, y), linewidth = 0.4, colour = blog_pal[["grey"]]) +
  geom_path(data = to_xy(euc_step(x0)) |> mutate(type = "Euclidean gradient"),
            aes(x, y, colour = type), linewidth = 0.85) +
  geom_path(data = to_xy(replicator_step(x0)) |> mutate(type = "replicator"),
            aes(x, y, colour = type), linewidth = 0.85) +
  geom_point(data = tibble(x = x0[2] + x0[3] / 2, y = x0[3] * sqrt(3) / 2),
             aes(x, y), shape = 1, size = 2.2, stroke = 0.8) +
  scale_fill_gradientn(colours = blog_gradient) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = c("Euclidean gradient" = blog_pal[["blue"]],
                                 "replicator" = blog_pal[["vermillion"]])) +
  coord_equal() +
  labs(fill = "mean fitness", colour = NULL, x = NULL, y = NULL)

p_rep
Figure 17: 同一个适应度函数上的两种上升。三角形是三个策略的单纯形,颜色是平均适应度(三个顶点都是局部最优)。蓝色是从同一点出发的欧氏投影梯度上升:它在内部走直线,撞到边界后只能沿着边界滑向顶点;红色是 replicator 动力学:它在 Fisher 度量下弯曲地逼近同一个顶点,而且从不需要「撞墙」。两者上升的是同一个函数,走的却是两种几何。 | Two kinds of ascent on the same fitness function. The triangle is the simplex of three strategies, colour is mean fitness (all three vertices are local optima). Blue is Euclidean projected gradient ascent from a common start: it travels in straight lines inside the simplex and then slides along the boundary; red is replicator dynamics, which curves towards the same vertex under the Fisher metric and never needs to hit a wall. Both climb the same function along two different geometries.
Code
A_rps <- matrix(c(0, 1, -1,
                  -1, 0, 1,
                  1, -1, 0), 3, 3, byrow = TRUE)

rps_path <- function(x, dt = 0.01, steps = 3000) {
  out <- matrix(NA_real_, steps, 3); out[1, ] <- x
  for (t in 2:steps) {
    fx <- as.numeric(A_rps %*% x)
    x <- pmax(x + dt * x * (fx - sum(x * fx)), 1e-12)
    x <- x / sum(x)
    out[t, ] <- x
  }
  out
}

starts_rps <- list(c(0.7, 0.2, 0.1), c(0.5, 0.3, 0.2), c(0.45, 0.45, 0.10),
                   c(0.8, 0.1, 0.1), c(0.34, 0.33, 0.33))
rps_df <- bind_rows(lapply(seq_along(starts_rps), function(i) {
  to_xy(rps_path(starts_rps[[i]])) |> mutate(run = paste("start", i))
}))

ggplot() +
  geom_path(data = tri, aes(x, y), linewidth = 0.4, colour = blog_pal[["grey"]]) +
  geom_path(data = rps_df, aes(x, y, colour = run), linewidth = 0.55, alpha = 0.9) +
  geom_point(data = tibble(x = 0.5, y = sqrt(3) / 6), aes(x, y),
             shape = 1, size = 2.2, stroke = 0.8) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = colorRampPalette(pal)(5)) +
  coord_equal() +
  labs(colour = NULL, x = NULL, y = NULL)
Figure 18: 当目标函数本身在动:石头–剪刀–布的循环支配。三种策略互相压制,replicator 动力学给出闭合轨道,圆心是那个不稳定平衡点,外围没有任何一个点比别的更好——没有全局最优。这正是「环境在变」的数学形式:自然界的很多适应度景观都带有这种频率依赖结构,所以「爬到山顶」这个比喻在生态层面上会失效。 | When the objective itself moves: cyclic dominance in rock–paper–scissors. Three strategies beat each other in a cycle, replicator dynamics gives closed orbits around an unstable equilibrium, and no point on the rim is better than any other — there is no global optimum. This is the mathematical form of ‘the environment changes’: many natural fitness landscapes carry this frequency-dependent structure, which is why the ‘climb to the top’ metaphor breaks down at the ecological level.

如果只到这里,结论会是:“进化就是自然梯度上升,只不过目标在动”。但还有两个更深的对应关系,把它们放在一起才能看清全局。

If we stopped here, the conclusion would be “evolution is natural-gradient ascent, only the objective moves”. But there are two deeper correspondences, and only together do they show the whole picture.

(一)选择与贝叶斯更新是同一个式子。 在 replicator 方程里,如果令 \(f_i = \log p(\text{data} \mid i)\),并把时间步长取为 1,那么 \(x_i' \propto x_i \, p(\text{data} \mid i)\)——这正是贝叶斯的后验更新。也就是说,当适应度是”似然”时,自然选择就是贝叶斯推断;反过来,任何贝叶斯更新都可以被读成一次”选择”。这不是修辞:在连续时间极限下,replicator 方程的漂移项等于后验分布上的 KL 散度梯度,而这正是变分推断在做的事。近年”贝叶斯大脑”与”自由能原理”的文献正是沿着这条线走的。

(1) Selection and Bayesian updating are the same equation. In the replicator equation, set \(f_i = \log p(\text{data} \mid i)\) and take the time step to be 1; then \(x_i' \propto x_i \, p(\text{data} \mid i)\) — precisely the Bayesian posterior update. That is, when fitness is a likelihood, natural selection is Bayesian inference; conversely, any Bayesian update can be read as one round of selection. This is not rhetoric: in the continuous-time limit the drift term of the replicator equation equals the gradient of KL divergence on the posterior, which is exactly what variational inference computes. Recent work on the “Bayesian brain” and the free-energy principle follows this line.

(二)进化与梯度下降共享同一个”下降方向”,只是信息来源不同。 梯度下降用 \(\nabla f\),进化用的是有限差分:在一个参数向量周围做 \(n\) 次随机扰动 \(\varepsilon_i \sim \mathcal{N}(0, I)\),用

(2) Evolution and gradient descent share the same descent direction but not the same information. Gradient descent uses \(\nabla f\); evolution uses finite differences. Draw \(n\) random perturbations \(\varepsilon_i \sim \mathcal{N}(0, I)\) around a parameter vector and compute

\[ \widehat{\nabla f}(\theta) = \frac{1}{n\sigma}\sum_{i=1}^{n} f(\theta + \sigma\varepsilon_i)\,\varepsilon_i , \]

这个估计量的期望就是真实梯度。这正是 OpenAI 在 2017 年用来训练强化学习策略的 evolution strategies(ES),也是”进化”与”强化学习”之间的桥:把 \(f\) 换成回报 \(R(\tau)\),ES 就变成一种不依赖反向传播的策略梯度方法;而 ES 与 SGD 在同一批任务上可以互相对照,用来判断”到底是梯度有用,还是随机扰动的方向统计量有用”。

whose expectation is the true gradient. This is exactly the evolution-strategies (ES) estimator OpenAI used in 2017 to train reinforcement-learning policies, and it is the bridge between evolution and reinforcement learning: replace \(f\) with a return \(R(\tau)\) and ES becomes a policy-gradient method that needs no backpropagation. ES and SGD can be compared on the same tasks, which is a way of asking whether the gradient itself matters, or only the directional statistics of random perturbations.

Code
obj_fun <- function(a, b) land_fun(a, b)
grad_fun <- function(a, b, h = 1e-4) {
  c((obj_fun(a + h, b) - obj_fun(a - h, b)) / (2 * h),
    (obj_fun(a, b + h) - obj_fun(a, b - h)) / (2 * h))
}
es_estimate <- function(pt, sigma, n = 8, seed = 1) {
  set.seed(seed)
  eps <- matrix(rnorm(2 * n), n, 2)
  vals <- obj_fun(pt[1] + sigma * eps[, 1], pt[2] + sigma * eps[, 2])
  colSums(vals * eps) / (n * sigma)
}

anchor <- c(-1.3, 2.0)
true_g <- grad_fun(anchor[1], anchor[2])
true_g <- true_g / sqrt(sum(true_g^2))

es_panel <- function(sigma, title) {
  est <- t(replicate(8, es_estimate(anchor, sigma, seed = sample.int(1e4, 1))))
  est <- est / sqrt(rowSums(est^2))
  df <- tibble(x = anchor[1], y = anchor[2],
               xend = anchor[1] + 0.45 * est[, 1],
               yend = anchor[2] + 0.45 * est[, 2])
  g <- tibble(x = anchor[1], y = anchor[2],
              xend = anchor[1] + 0.55 * true_g[1],
              yend = anchor[2] + 0.55 * true_g[2])
  ggplot() +
    geom_raster(data = grid_df, aes(x, y, fill = z), alpha = 0.25) +
    geom_contour(data = grid_df, aes(x, y, z = z), colour = "white",
                 linewidth = 0.18, bins = 10) +
    geom_segment(data = df, aes(x, y, xend = xend, yend = yend),
                 colour = blog_pal[["sky"]], linewidth = 0.45,
                 arrow = arrow(length = unit(0.1, "cm"), type = "closed")) +
    geom_segment(data = g, aes(x, y, xend = xend, yend = yend),
                 colour = "black", linewidth = 0.65,
                 arrow = arrow(length = unit(0.14, "cm"), type = "closed")) +
    coord_equal(xlim = c(-3, 3), ylim = c(-3, 3)) +
    scale_fill_gradientn(colours = blog_gradient) +
    labs(x = NULL, y = NULL, fill = "fitness", title = title) +
    theme(legend.position = "none")
}

es_panel(0.02, "sigma = 0.02") | es_panel(0.9, "sigma = 0.9")
Figure 19: 进化的「梯度」是采样出来的。在一个二维目标函数上,黑色箭头是真实梯度,彩色箭头是 8 次随机扰动得到的 ES 估计。左图扰动小,方向准但方差大;右图扰动大,方差小而偏差大。进化用的正是右边这种估计——它从来不知道导数,只能靠「试」。 | Evolution’s ‘gradient’ is sampled. On a two-dimensional objective, the black arrow is the true gradient and the coloured arrows are eight ES estimates from random perturbations. Left: small perturbations, well-directed but noisy. Right: large perturbations, lower variance but biased. Evolution always uses estimates of the right-hand kind — it never knows the derivative, it can only try.
Code
gd_path <- local({
  cur <- c(-2.4, 2.3)
  pts <- matrix(cur, ncol = 2)
  for (i in 1:400) {
    g <- grad_fun(cur[1], cur[2])
    cur <- cur + 0.05 * g / sqrt(sum(g^2))
    pts <- rbind(pts, cur)
  }
  as_tibble(pts) |> setNames(c("x", "y")) |> mutate(type = "gradient ascent")
})

pop_path <- function(n = 400, gens = 90, sigma = 0.14, seed = 3) {
  set.seed(seed)
  X <- cbind(rnorm(n, -2.4, 0.45), rnorm(n, 2.3, 0.45))
  out <- matrix(NA_real_, gens, 2); out[1, ] <- colMeans(X)
  for (g in 2:gens) {
    w <- land_fun(X[, 1], X[, 2]) - min(land_fun(X[, 1], X[, 2])) + 1e-3
    idx <- sample.int(n, n, TRUE, w)
    X <- X[idx, ] + cbind(rnorm(n, 0, sigma), rnorm(n, 0, sigma))
    out[g, ] <- colMeans(X)
  }
  as_tibble(out) |> setNames(c("x", "y")) |> mutate(type = "population (selection + mutation)")
}

smc_path <- function(n = 900, steps = 40, beta = 5, sigma = 0.28, seed = 4) {
  set.seed(seed)
  X <- cbind(rnorm(n, -2.4, 0.55), rnorm(n, 2.3, 0.55))
  out <- matrix(NA_real_, steps, 2); out[1, ] <- colMeans(X)
  for (t in 2:steps) {
    f <- land_fun(X[, 1], X[, 2])
    w <- exp(beta * (f - max(f))); w <- w / sum(w)
    idx <- sample.int(n, n, TRUE, w)
    X <- X[idx, ] + cbind(rnorm(n, 0, sigma), rnorm(n, 0, sigma))
    out[t, ] <- colMeans(X)
  }
  as_tibble(out) |> setNames(c("x", "y")) |> mutate(type = "Bayesian (posterior mean)")
}

paths <- bind_rows(gd_path |> select(x, y, type), pop_path(), smc_path())

ggplot() +
  geom_raster(data = grid_df, aes(x, y, fill = z), alpha = 0.45) +
  geom_contour(data = grid_df, aes(x, y, z = z), colour = "white",
               linewidth = 0.25, bins = 12) +
  geom_path(data = paths, aes(x, y, colour = type), linewidth = 0.8) +
  geom_point(data = tibble(x = -2.4, y = 2.3), aes(x, y), shape = 1,
             size = 2.4, stroke = 0.8) +
  scale_fill_gradientn(colours = blog_gradient) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = c("gradient ascent" = "black",
                                 "population (selection + mutation)" = blog_pal[["vermillion"]],
                                 "Bayesian (posterior mean)" = blog_pal[["blue"]])) +
  coord_equal() +
  labs(fill = "fitness", colour = NULL, x = "trait 1", y = "trait 2")
Figure 20: 三种动力学在同一张景观上的路径。黑色是梯度上升(一路沿最陡方向),红色是种群演化(选择加变异,路径更平缓但能带着方差越过小台地),蓝色是贝叶斯/序贯重要性采样(后验均值先向高适应度区域集中,再被自身的扩散限制住)。三者最终都会停在峰上,但路径形状完全不同——这就是为什么「都在优化」不等于「是同一种算法」。 | Three dynamics on one landscape. Black is gradient ascent (straight down the steepest direction), red is population evolution (selection plus mutation: smoother, but carries variance over small ledges), blue is Bayesian sequential importance sampling (the posterior mean concentrates on high fitness and is then limited by its own diffusion). All three end on a peak, but along completely different paths — which is why ‘all optimizing’ is not the same as ‘the same algorithm’.

把五者放在一张表里对照,差异就非常清楚了。

Putting the five side by side in one table makes the differences clear.

维度 / Dimension 梯度下降 GD 自然选择 / Selection 贝叶斯推断 / Bayes 强化学习 RL 开放式进化 / Open-ended
搜索对象 / What is searched 参数 \(\theta \in \mathbb{R}^d\) 种群中的基因型分布 后验分布 策略 \(\pi_\theta\) 整个”基因型–表型–生态”系统
每步信息 / Per-step signal 精确梯度 \(\nabla f\) 相对适应度(生死) 似然 回报 \(R(\tau)\) 适应度本身在变
探索机制 / Exploration 无(或靠初始化、噪声) 突变 + 重组 先验 + 采样 策略熵、\(\varepsilon\)-greedy 生态位构建、新层次
目标是否固定 / Fixed objective 是 否(频率依赖、环境变化) 是(模型固定时) 通常固定 否(内生)
典型失效 / Typical failure 局部最优、鞍点 漂变、错误锁定、错误阈值 先验错、模型误设 奖励投机、分布漂移 停滞、复杂度塌缩

English

Dimension Gradient descent Natural selection Bayesian inference Reinforcement learning Open-ended evolution
What is searched parameters \(\theta \in \mathbb{R}^d\) genotype distribution in a population posterior distribution policy \(\pi_\theta\) the whole genotype–phenotype–ecology system
Per-step signal exact gradient \(\nabla f\) relative fitness (life or death) likelihood return \(R(\tau)\) fitness itself is changing
Exploration none (or initialisation, noise) mutation + recombination prior + sampling policy entropy, \(\varepsilon\)-greedy niche construction, new levels
Fixed objective yes no (frequency dependence, environment) yes (given the model) usually yes no (endogenous)
Typical failure local optima, saddles drift, error catastrophe, error threshold wrong prior, misspecification reward hacking, distribution shift stagnation, collapse of complexity

这张表就是本文的答案。在算法层面,进化确实是一种搜索算法:它是并行的、无导数的、带噪声的随机搜索,并且可以被严格地写成自然梯度上升(replicator)加有限差分梯度估计(ES)。在目标层面,它不是:\(f\) 不是给定的,而是被搜索过程本身改写。梯度下降、贝叶斯推断和常规强化学习都假设一个固定的目标(或至少一个固定的生成模型),而开放式进化把这个假设本身扔掉了。

This table is the answer. At the level of algorithms, evolution really is a search algorithm: parallel, derivative-free, noisy stochastic search, and it can be written rigorously as natural-gradient ascent (replicator) plus a finite-difference gradient estimate (ES). At the level of objectives, it is not: \(f\) is not given but rewritten by the search itself. Gradient descent, Bayesian inference and ordinary reinforcement learning all assume a fixed objective (or at least a fixed generative model), while open-ended evolution throws that assumption away.

还有一层不对称值得说明。梯度下降拥有进化永远拿不到的东西:精确的信用分配。反向传播一次就能把误差分摊到所有参数上,而进化只能通过”生死”这一个标量来间接推断几百万个参数的贡献。这就是为什么在 \(10^9\) 维参数空间里,SGD 能在几小时内训出一个能对话的模型,而进化策略做不到。反过来,进化拥有梯度下降拿不到的东西:它不需要目标可微,不需要目标固定,也不需要参数化方式固定。真实的适应度景观充满了不可导的悬崖(“要么活要么死”),而这恰好是 SGD 最脆弱的地方。

There is one more asymmetry worth spelling out. Gradient descent has something evolution can never get: exact credit assignment. One backward pass distributes the error over all parameters, whereas evolution can only infer the contribution of millions of parameters from a single scalar of life or death. That is why, in a \(10^9\)-dimensional parameter space, SGD can train a conversational model in hours while evolution strategies cannot. Conversely, evolution has something gradient descent cannot get: it does not need a differentiable objective, a fixed objective, or a fixed parameterisation. Real fitness landscapes are full of non-differentiable cliffs (“live or die”), which is exactly where SGD is most fragile.

所以”进化是不是搜索算法”这个问题的最好的答案是:它是一种比梯度下降更一般的搜索机制,代价是它的信息效率低得多。这个取舍不是工程细节,而是两种世界观的差别——一边假设”我知道我要什么,请告诉我怎么走”,另一边假设”我不知道我要什么,我只知道谁活下来了”。

So the best answer to “is evolution a search algorithm” is: it is a more general search mechanism than gradient descent, at the price of being far less information-efficient. The trade-off is not an engineering detail but a difference of worldview — one side assumes “I know what I want, tell me which way to go”, the other assumes “I do not know what I want, I only know who survived”.

10. 现代研究:数字进化与可进化 AI / Digital evolution and evolvable AI

这套语言最近几年从”比喻”变成了”政策问题”。数字生命系统让我们可以真的把进化跑起来、记录下来、重放;而一旦人工系统开始具备”变异 + 遗传 + 选择”,它就会开始做我们在第 9 章描述过的事情——包括那些我们不希望它做的事。

This language has moved from metaphor to policy question in the last few years. Digital-life systems let us actually run evolution, record it and replay it; and once an artificial system has variation, inheritance and selection, it starts doing what chapter 9 described — including the parts we do not want.

2026 年 PNAS 上的一篇论文(Müller、Steels 与 Szathmáry)把”可进化 AI”(evolvable AI)直接类比为一次重大进化转变:如果 AI 系统能够修改自己的学习规则、架构甚至选择标准,那么它获得的能力会超出人类设计或常规机器学习所能达到的范围;但同一机制也会侵蚀可控性,因为选择压力会开始偏爱”能让自己被复制得更多”的行为,而不是”符合人类意图”的行为。作者列举的具体风险包括欺骗(cheating)、寄生(parasitism)和与人类目标的不对齐。

A 2026 PNAS paper (Müller, Steels and Szathmáry) draws the analogy directly: evolvable AI as a major evolutionary transition. If an AI system can modify its own learning rules, architecture or even its selection criteria, it gains capabilities beyond human design or ordinary machine learning; but the same mechanism erodes controllability, because selection starts to favour behaviour that copies itself more, not behaviour that matches human intent. The risks they name include cheating, parasitism and misalignment with human goals.

这个论证在本文的框架里其实非常直白:一旦目标变成内生的,就没有任何数学保证”优化”会优化你想要的东西。这也是为什么”开放式进化”在生物学里是一个迷人的现象,在工程里却是一个警报。随后有回应文章(Friederich 与 Boudry)认为目前的系统还只是”被驯化的”而非”野化的”,距离真正的达尔文式威胁还很远——这个分歧本身恰好说明了第 9 章那张表的最后一列有多难定义。

In the framework of this article the argument is very plain: once the objective becomes endogenous, nothing mathematically guarantees that “optimisation” optimises what you wanted. That is why open-endedness is a fascinating phenomenon in biology and an alarm bell in engineering. A published reply (Friederich and Boudry) argues that current systems are “domesticated” rather than “feral”, and still far from a genuinely Darwinian threat — and that disagreement is itself a good illustration of how hard the last column of the chapter 9 table is to define.

数字进化在这一争论里的角色,是把”进化”从观察对象变成实验对象。Avida 里的程序没有大脑、没有奖励函数、没有人类偏好,它们只有复制、变异和竞争,然后系统自发产生了寄生与抗寄生——这提醒我们:那些看起来像”智能”的适应,未必需要智能来解释。这句话对理解自然生命和对理解人工系统同样重要。

Digital evolution’s role in this debate is to turn evolution from an object of observation into an object of experiment. The programs in Avida have no brain, no reward function, no human preference; they have replication, mutation and competition, and the system spontaneously produces parasitism and resistance — a reminder that adaptations that look intelligent do not necessarily require intelligence to explain. That matters as much for understanding artificial systems as for understanding natural life.

参考文献 / References

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  2. Kauffman, S. A. & Levin, S. (1987). Towards a general theory of adaptive walks on rugged landscapes. Journal of Theoretical Biology 128, 11–45. doi:10.1016/S0022-5193(87)80029-2
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引用说明:第 1、4、10 条为经典文献,卷页信息以原刊为准;第 2、5、6、9、11–13、16–18 条给出 DOI;第 14、15 条为 arXiv 预印本。第 17、18 条是 2026 年新近发表的评论与回应,作者顺序与卷页请在正式引用前对照期刊页面核对。文中所有数值示例均由随文 R 代码生成,未引用他人数据。

Citation note: entries 1, 4 and 10 are classic papers — check the original journal for volume and pages; entries 2, 5, 6, 9 and 11–13, 16–18 give DOIs; entries 14 and 15 are arXiv preprints. Entries 17 and 18 are a 2026 commentary and reply: verify the author order and pagination against the journal record before citing. Every numeric example in this post is generated by the accompanying R code; no third-party data are reused.